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Tuesday Morning: The Snow is Gone


November 21st, 2006

All the snow melted from yesterday and it looks like we could reach the 60’s here in Upstate NY for Thanksgiving. You have got to love our weather. Nah, no you don’t, you can feel free to hate it like the rest of us.

Anyway the latest potential candidate for 2008 is Newt Gingrich whom is running what CNN labels a Stealth candidacy. Which means basically he is running without running by talking about what he would run on without actually talking about running. Confused? I am too.

From what I gather Gingrich will launch a 527 group that can raise a ton of money from which he can spread his ideas about the future and the direction of the country. If a candidate comes along and adopts said ideas then he may support them (or more likely seek their support for him getting a nice job in the administration in return, Secretary of State or Defense, Homeland Security? Just my prediction).

If next year or so there is no candidate that shares his values or who looks capable of being a moderate and someone who plays to the right at the same time he will announce his candidacy. The nice catch is he will have spent millions of dollars in the interim to get people to believe in the things he believes in so when it comes time to vote in the primary and hopefully the general he will seem like the prime candidate.

Pretty clever, but will it work? In past elections third party candidates have often run in this direction. Few have had Gingrich’s appeal before the run (he polls pretty high, often third in line after McCain and Giuliani), few have had his national stature (though some of that stature comes with negative memories for moderates, such as the impeachment of Bill Clinton while acquiring personal ethics violations for himself) and most important few had the desire to get the actual nomination of a party.

Exceptions? Yes of course there have been, some have gotten the nomination after being outsiders, some have found third parties after failing to get the nomination, but more often then not this kind of strategy has been favored by those on the outside who want their ideas spread more then they want the job. I get the sense Gingrich wants the job and by promoting the ideas more then the man he will find widespread support of the ideas but the face of someone else.

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