Robert Novak says that Senator Barack Obama is definitely running. Meanwhile the advertisement above from DraftObama.org is running in Hawaii where the senator is vacationing during the holiday recess and some say finalizing plans on whether or not he will take the plunge in 2008.
Meannwhile as I pointed out not long ago there will inevitably be a turning point when all the amazing press the Senator has received will turn. According to an editorial in the Sun Times that backlash has begun. The editorial points to Barack Obama Inc. an article written by Ken Silverstein in Harpers which details what the author sees as the institutionalization of Obama softening his positions on issues and tying him into establishment ideas and causes.
Senator Obama’s office has rebutted the charges but it is a first sign that the prediction I made (an easy one at that) has come true. There is a backlash to the good press coming.
The duck plays to a new ‘running?’ joke on The Daily Show where the Affleck duck says ‘Vilsack’ in the patented Gilbert Godfried way.
My own analysis? The Gov. really didn’t come off well. He was stiff, unused to the fast pace of the show. He got his scripted(?) jokes in but he did not have an answer for Iraq that was soundbyte worthy or showed any real leadership. At the end of the interview Stewart fed what the host believed to be the only major selling point line to the candidate who didn’t seem to pick up on what he was going for.
Senator Evan Bayh (D – IN) who had formed an exploratory committee just three weeks ago announced on Saturday he would be dropping out of the 08′ race. Bayh told theIndianapolis Star “At the end of the day, I concluded that due to circumstances beyond our control the odds were longer than I felt I could responsibly pursue”.
President
David Broder writes about some things you should know concerning Governor Tom Vilsack. – THe Governor will be appearing on The Daily Show tonight. – Will Sullivan interviews Gov. Vilsack for U.S. News & World Report.
John M. Broder writes about former Speaker Newt Gingrich’s non-campaign, campaign for 2008 and beyond.
Nedra Pickler is reporting that John Edwards is preparing to announce his intentions to run in 08′.
Gen. Wesley Clark will host the inaugural conference on national security of the UCLA Ronald W. Burkle Center for International Relations on March 6-7, 2007.
Adam Nagourney in the NY Times online looks at some recent appointments to the Giuliani campaign and speculates on its meaning.
Though he isn’t running yet(?) the Chicago-Tribune says that Senator Barack Obama is showing his prowess as a fundraiser.
The House
The Hill is reporting on speculation about House members jumps into the Senate in 2008. It is a pretty regular thing for those in the House to run for the Senate, 6 of the 10 new Senators in 2006 were House members.
Dennis Prager of The Conservative Voiceinterviewed former Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Some blogs and writers are saying that Giuliani “dissed” McCain in the interview but if you look at the transcript:
“I don’t know how I differ from John. I mean, John and I have pretty much the same view on the war, as best I can tell. I mean, I think he is…it may be that I’m more firmly committed to tax cutting than he is, although he has vote for some tax cuts. He hasn’t voted for others. I’m not sure. But John and I are good friends, and if we do end up running against each other, it’ll be interesting to see where and how we differ.”
I don’t entirely see how that is a “diss”, especially considering the trash talk that is likely to come down the line.
Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH 10th) is expected to announce he will run for president again in 2008.
Former Vice President Al Gore has said he is not planning on running again for the presidency but added he isn’t ruling it out.
Peter Wallsten of the L.A. Timeswrites about the division between President Bush staffers and Governor Bush staffers who are leaving to work on 2008 Presidential campaigns. A portion of the President’s inner circle are reportedly moving into Senator McCain’s camp while members of the Governor’s inner circle are moving into the Gov. Mitt Romeny’s camp.
Republican Congressman Duncan Hunter has found support from textile magnate Roger Milliken in South Carolina according to the Kansas City Star.
Thoughts
The two big movements going on in the Presidential race right now are between Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain and Gov. Mitt Romney (and now to a lesser extent Sam Brownback) which at the moment amounts to one argument about style and another about substance.
I don’t entirely know what the Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton push amounts to. Basically it seems like Barack Obama isn’t Hillary Clinton and so the press is on a giant “Hillary must be ticked off by Obama” push. Likewise every other Democrat potentially running seems to poll as unappealing or downright dreaded so it seems like Obama is the only non-Hillary choice this far out before the election. Does Senator Clinton fear him? I don’t know and frankly I don’t believe any one of the hundreds of people writing those articles knows either.
Meanwhile Senator John McCain is fighting an overall wrap about conservatism against candidates who are claiming the far-right social conservative mantel. This is the one of substance not so much from the candidates themselves, Mitt Romney is slowly imploding over his past support of gay marriage, but of a direction for the Republican Party.
From CNN “Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kansas, who has formed a presidential exploratory committee, announced he will spend Friday night in the Louisiana State Penitentiary in an effort to highlight the success of faith based initiatives.”
President
ABC News reports Senator John McCain’s campaign will be headed by veteran GOP campaign operative Terry Nelson if he decides to run.
Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani told the Associated Press that he dropped out of the Iraq Study Group after two months because of his White House Presidential Run. He felt that the group should remain apolitical.
In book news:
- Senator McCain will reportedly release a fifth book with his longtime administrative assistant Mark Salter, tentatively titledHard Call and tentatively scheduled for release in August 2007.
- 2000 Candidate, ex-Vice President and rumored 2008 runner Al Gore’s The Assault on Reason will come out in fall ‘07.
- Gov. Mike Huckabee’s From Hope To Higher Ground: 12 Stops to Restoring America’s Greatnesswill be released on January 4th ‘07
- Meanwhile Retired General Wesley Clark’s America’s Son — fall ‘07.
Without getting into it much, the Iraq study group has made its report available. Undoubtedly Iraq will still play a major role in the elections two years down the road. It is impossible to know how at the moment but it could still be as significant issue in 2008 as it was in 2006.
I encourage you to read the report. I would also note one of the things it has to say that could impact the election:
By the first quarter of 2008, subject to unexpected developments in the security situation on the ground, all combat brigades not necessary for force protection could be out of Iraq. At that time, U.S. combat forces in Iraq could be deployed only in units embedded with Iraqi forces, in rapid-reaction and special operations teams, and in training, equipping, advising, force protection, and
search and rescue. Intelligence and support efforts would continue.
A vital mission of those rapid reaction and special operations
forces would be to undertake strikes against al Qaeda in
Iraq.
will come out in fall ‘07.