Latest Polling Data Clinton Tops, Huckabee Continues Gains


December 9th, 2007

Original Source McClatchy (Found via The Page)

DEM
IA– Clinton 27, Obama 25, Edwards 21
NH– Clinton 30, Obama 27, Edwards 10
SC– Clinton 28, Obama 25, Edwards 18
NV– Clinton 34, Obama 26, Edwards 9

GOP
IA– Huckabee 32, Romney 20, Thompson 11, McCain 7, Giuliani 5
NH– Romney 25, Giuliani 17, McCain 16, Huckabee 11
SC– Huckabee 20, Giuliani 17, Romney 15, Thompson 14, McCain 10
NV– Giuliani 25, Romney 20, Huckabee 17, Thompson 9, McCain 7

As I have said about the Iowa polls for Obama I will repeat for Clinton. This is one poll, the slight lead is in the margin of error and if you look at the trend it is a three-way race with no statistical leader. But the Iowa poll does contradict some previously reported ideas. The first is that Clinton leads with women in the poll. There has been some reporting suggesting that women are running away from Clinton to Obama. Not in this poll. Meanwhile Obama leads with men. There has been continued suggestion that men were racing to Clinton and unlikely to vote for Obama. Not true in this poll either.

The second is to the most interesting thing to me. If a candidate fails to get 15% of the vote they get to recast. 74% said they would recast if given the choice. Obama comes in first on second choice with 30%, however Clinton comes in second with 29% while Edwards gets 37%. The media consensus thus far as been to point out a previous poll showing Edwards and Obama getting the majority of the second choices with Clinton having no shot.



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