Is Giuliani on the Retreat in Early States?


December 18th, 2007

It was just a few weeks ago on Meet the Press, Rudy Giuliani said repeatedly “look at my numbers in Florida”. Since that broadcast Giuliani’s once high Florida lead has diminished and nationally he now faces a growing movement toward former Gov. Mike Huckabee and a resurgence in buzz surrounding Senator John McCain.

Meanwhile the headlines don’t look good. The New York Sun reports Giuliani Begins Retreat from New Hampshire while the New York Post reports Rudy Looks Past Iowa.

Giuliani made no secret early that his campaign would be heavily focused on winning big states rather than early primary states. He seemed likely to capture states like New York and California while few saw a chance for wins in New Hampshire and Iowa. As the campaign built national momentum though it sought to capitalize by moving into this early primary territory hoping to squeak out a second or third place win and capture headlines. The money and time spent by the campaign, especially in New Hampshire, seemed to do the opposite. As team Giuliani spent, the poll numbers went down.

At this point in the campaign mainstream media outlets and it seems Internet outlets as well aren’t counting delegates or doing electoral math. They are buying and selling the horse-race in early primary states. Their plan? To sell the underdog story if one exists or in lieu of that the “comeback kid” angle. It is a media mainstay which ignores commonsense replacing it with, media sense, which creates a story within a predictable pattern that is self serving and more entertainment than anything else. Putting aside delegates, organization, and national support the media will either attempt to carry the winner of the early states momentum onto the big race or turn on these winners with raw and bitter force. The outcome is a normalized field where David receives a “fair fight” against Goliath even if he didn’t really do much to earn it.

It is all very interesting to watch but we see how destructive it is to campaigns like Giuliani & Clinton’s and I have to wonder if its the best way to pick viable candidates or simply the best way to sell a news story. Destroy the momentum of the frontrunners, build up insurgents and then turn on whomever sells the least from headlines.



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