On Getting Things Wrong in New Hampshire
January 9th, 2008
It is almost impossible to convey just how wrong everyone, including me, got it wrong in New Hampshire. Just dead wrong! Goes to show what any of us know.
When it comes to Senator Clinton I have to say this. I have never seen anyone take such a massive beating in the press, on the blogs, by her opponents, by the people themselves showing up to boo and protest, than she took after Iowa. When people asked me what the signifigance was going to be from Iowa I did not say it was delegates, I did not say it was a sense of the electorate, I did not say it was anything substantial when it comes to voting. I said it would be the media that would go on to crown the winner the victor and pummel the opposition. Boy was that an understatement.
Clinton was never going to win Iowa. That much should always be remembered. It just wasn’t her state. What is real and not in the media never matters though and after seeing her just hammered for days, who could expect someone to survive that?
As for all of us watching. Here are a few good tips that I am also going to live by.
#1 – Don’t Trust Polls (Especially when one primary/caucus is just a couple days after another)
This is the most condensed primary schedule in history, we should have all given in and recognized that polling might not be reflective of what is really going on and it could continue to be that way for the rest of it. We should look at polls, consider them, but don’t trust them as indicators to live and die by.
#2 – Don’t Always Trust Crowds
It seems logical that massive crowds at events would be an indicator of support. Here is the problem. New Hampshire is a small, not so populous state that is right next to a bunch of giant, very populous states. Looking over the election results, many of those counties only had a hundred or less people voting for each candidate. So isn’t it likely that people from, say, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont etc. were probably coming to those rallies where thousands of people were overflowing?
#3 – Iowa & New Hampshire Are Not Representative of the Nation
We all know this. They are two small states whose populations do not mirror the rest of the nation. This has been repeatedly stated by everyone. So why in the world do we, every election year, take their victories and declare an end to the nomination? 48 other states plus Washington D.C. haven’t voted yet. I think we all need to calm down, myself included.
#4 – Don’t Trust Chris Matthews
Somehow, as I have noted several times on here, FOX decided to become the channel of conservatism and MSNBC decided to become the channel of liberalism. So why do I keep watching Hardball with Chris Matthews? The crew at MSNBC have become as slanted and biased as MSNBC and have been distorting reality toward Obama. I know this, I understand this, I need to stop watching Hardball.
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