AP Jumps Past Super Tuesday & I Suggest We All Calm Down
January 24th, 2008
For every article that was written just a few short months ago declaring that Super Tuesday was going to be the decisive blow for both parties, there will now undoubtedly be an equal article written declaring that Feb. 5th will not mark the end of each nominating process. Today the Associated Press gives us one.
There will be nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to put a candidate well on his or her way to the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. But even if somehow either Clinton or Obama won every single one of those delegates, it wouldn’t be enough. And with two strong candidates, the delegates could be divided fairly evenly because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally — not winner-take- all.
The Republicans have a better chance to produce a clear front-runner because several states, including New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona, award all their GOP delegates to the candidate who wins the popular statewide vote. But a Republican candidate would have to attract support across the country to build a formidable lead.
Incase you haven’t noticed from all of the wrong predictions and countering analysis not one of us writing or looking at the 2008 race has any idea what we are talking about when it comes to predictions. We will all continue to make them, but everything from saying Clinton’s Iraq War vote would doom her candidacy to John McCain’s campaign being DOA, to Obama’s win in Iowa marking his immediate rise to the nomination has been wrong, wrong, wrong.
Are there good reasons to assume Super Tuesday won’t mark the end of both nominations or even one of the nominations? Sure. However if one candidate manages to sweep or at the very least take all of the delegate rich states we are going to have a MUCH better indication of how this race is going than we do today with only a few states and not many delegates decided.
My suggestion is that everyone calm down on this prediction stuff. We are early into the process and anything can happen. For all we know some heavyweights will drop out after Feb. 5th radically changing the race. For all we know some heavyweights might drop out after Florida. For all we know candidates the media are predicting will have to drop out today will hold on tightly until the convention and broker their way to the top.
The media has lost a lot of its domination over this presidential race. No longer can it announce the “front runner” after Iowa and New Hampshire and take that candidate to the nomination. So far what we have seen is that the voters are deciding this one and they seem to have ideas that run counter to Chris Matthews, Rush Limbaugh, Tim Russert, Wolf Blitzer, George Will and the rest of the commentators, pundits, reporters, anchors, bloggers, activists, editors, Facebook friends and monied interests.
I will say it again, CALM DOWN, no one has any idea where this is all going. Feb. 5th will be the first big indicator and it could be the end or the beginning or the middle or have no significance whatsoever. I know we all live in a world where we are not expected to delay gratification but for just this once we may have to let the people vote before we predict a winner.
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