I seem to say this just before all of these major votes but it is true. In South Carolina and New Hampshire the votes turned out much different than the polls showed and the massive crowds, endorsements and campaigning by Barack Obama did not equate to victory. In a primary season when so much is happening in such a condensed time, I always say what should be obvious, we just don’t know.

Right now everyone is quoting last minute polls that seem to be all over the place. Some national polls, Gallup & USA Today, have Clinton and Obama even. Some have Clinton running away with it, Rasmussen. Washington Post/ABC has a slight lead for Clinton. This could all mean anything, it could be a real representation or it could just be a fluke.

California is more of the same. McLatchy/MSNBChas Clinton running away with it while Reuters/C-Span/Zogby has a close race with Clinton in the lead. Meanwhile a Field Poll has the two even.

But if you watch the coverage you wouldn’t necessarily see the disparity in all of this. Everyone is fixed on the one poll that shows their candidate has a chance or that maintains their long held position. Furthermore the media has gone back to the highly unscientific and misleading business of counting crowds that gather for personal appearances. We tried this before, remember New Hampshire where 24 hours before everyone thought Clinton would lose in a landslide because of the intense interest in Obama at these events? No one thought to ask “are we sure everyone attending even lives in this state?”

Only one thing matters now, turnout and quite simply all the other measures in this election just aren’t good enough right now. So we should all step back, have some coffee and gear up for a long night on Tuesday.

(Note: With all that said above the Republican race seems like it is a little easier to figure out. Because turnout has been less for Republicans thus far the races have been easier to call. It looks like John McCain will make big gains this Tuesday but again, use caution)