Standing By My Poll Belief, Election Geek Will Be Poll Free for Super Tuesday
February 4th, 2008
I keep seeing a lot of odd information coming out of the polling. Obama seems to be catching up nationally but a CBS poll finds that amongst Super Tuesday states Clinton holds a massive advantage. Everyone is reading into conflicting information about early voting. Most of the early voting and absentee ballots were cast when Clinton was riding high but there are conflicting reports on whether pollsters are taking these early voters into consideration.
Basically the idea right now is that people were so turned off by Bill Clinton and so turned on by the whopping win in South Carolina for Barack Obama (Also the Kennedy endorsements) that many are jumping the Clinton ship. I don’t know that we can really believe that and in California where a very large percentage of the state votes absentee, I just don’t know what we can expect.
Then there is this nugget, one poll shows 53% of Democrats believe we are making progress in Iraq. That could be very true our it could be one more indication that these polls are not entirely accurate.
So in short as I keep saying the following, polls taken with such small sample sizes in such a short period of time between contests and across such a wide array of states and spun in so many different ways and showing conflicting information probably should not be trusted.
My conclusion? I am not going to be citing polls in the next twenty-four hours as any indication of voting on the Democratic side. Republican polling seems to be a little more stable though there are probably problems with those numbers too so I am just going to avoid polls altogether and not get on the “lets make predictions” bandwagon. With everything running so close for Democrats we probably won’t know until Tuesday night or Wednesday or even later what is happening.
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