Mounting Evidence Super Delegates, Not Voters Will Decide
February 8th, 2008
Update: Just an additional little item, check out CNN for a quick video on where we stand.
Paul Kane of the Washington Post does the math to show super delegates will decide the Democratic nominee.
Ohio is not at all where Clinton could wrap things up. We’ve done a bad job of explaining this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).
Here’s the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination.
To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process — with Clinton and Obama roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece.
That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.
So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.
Ain’t gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they’ll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and both finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates.
And then the super delegates decide this thing.
That’s the math.
Also to be fair many Super Delegates will probably go the way of voting but still, it goes to show just how screwy this thing is. My hope is that this election finally ends the archaic, confusing and useless Democratic primary/caucus system. I doubt it, but would be nice. Just my hope and pure opinion.
Posted in Election 2008 | 17 Comments »
February 8th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
“We’ve done a bad job of explaing this,”
To be sure, you did a bad job of spelling this. Please clarify what ‘explaing’ means, for those of us that speak English.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
I’m also waiting on a translation of ‘bothing finishing the voting process.’
February 8th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Are you sure you speak English? In our language, “explaing” would be read by any reasonable person as a misspelling of the word “explaining.”
Hopefully this explaation has been helpful!
February 8th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
In my experience, only two groups of people feel the need to measure intelligence by typos:
1. English majors/nerds (who I suppose have an excuse but need to learn to control it).
2. People who want to sound smarter than they actually are.
The content of the article itself is both interesting and sound.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
I fixed the errors. The quote comes from a live chat with the author and as you know live chats are often prone to misspellings. I did not catch it earlier. Apologies.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
[...] delegates to Hillary’s 1,789. But It takes 2,025 to be nominated More info regarding the topic Mounting Evidence Super Delegates, Not Voters Will Decide | Election Geek Blog 2008 Election News 24… __________________ [...]
February 8th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
I think the author is also failing to consider what will happen if michigan and florida end up holding emergency caucuses in May. That will be an extra 300 delegates up for grab and will make it much more likely for one canidate to reach the magic 2,025 without the help of superdelegates.
Plus generalized math and status are terrible…is it really that much harder to use real numbers.
February 8th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
What utter tripe. Perhaps you should do more than just one math equation before you declare it impossible. Just as one example, if 60% of the remaining delegates go to one candidate who gains a slight edge, and 60% of the superdelegates vote for that candidate as well, then he or she wins the nomination. How is that decided by the superdelegates in that case? I could spend time thinking of others, but why?
At best, the word you’re looking for is improbable.
February 9th, 2008 at 12:03 am
[...] Well the close race for the Democratic nomination looks set to shatter the democracy dreams of millions of first time voters as it seems the race is so tight that it can only be resolved by the Super Delegates. [...]
February 9th, 2008 at 7:29 am
[...] Evidence Super Delegates, Not Voters Will Decide Mounting Evidence Super Delegates, Not Voters Will Decide [...]
February 9th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
Simon, that’s pretty much exactly what they’re saying. So, if one candidate takes 60% of the remaining delegates from primaries, the deciding factor will be the superdelegates.
Superdelegates can pretty much decide to vote however they like, so you can’t necessarily assume that they’ll vote along with the popular vote.
February 10th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
[...] To quote Paul Kane of the Washington Post: “Ohio is not at all where Clinton could wrap things up. We’ve done a bad job of explaininng this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).” I guess Obama will loose then. [...]
February 12th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
he super delegate issue is unconscionable. There is a real chance our candidate will not be the one who gets the most votes. I can’t tell you how mad this makes me. I have created a protest site here
http://www.popularprimaryvotenow.com
Add your comments. I am going to print every comment out and walk it to the DNC headquarters. Our voices should be heard!
February 20th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
i agree with avijit
September 4th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
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October 31st, 2008 at 6:21 pm
who are the ones that decide on who are these super delegates. And are th super delegates from all race & financial status or are they only from the upper class?
June 29th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
Just grabbed the feed… thanks for posting this.