Why Huckabee Stayed In
February 10th, 2008
Patrick Ruffini gives his thoughts saying:
The race isn’t any less over than it was 48 hours ago. But it seems likely that Huckabee could accumulate a significant number of delegates and (possibly) keep McCain under the magic number until after March 4th.
There was a question of whether Huckabee supporters would invariably flow to Romney; but Romney voters sure are flocking to Huckabee, raising a legitimate question of whether a social conservative-led anti-McCain bloc would have fared better in the early primaries.
I now expect the protest vote for Huckabee to be quite strong in most states as turnout plummets, maybe 30-40% in the South and Midwest and 20-30% elsewhere, rising to outright victories in caucuses and in the Deep South.
From my understanding of the numbers even if Huckabee won every primary and caucus from this point on he still couldn’t win the nomination. It is definitely as Ruffini says a “protest vote” and though McCain won Washington it does send a message especially looking at how many people still voted for Romney in yesterdays contests. Many in the Republican party are not happy with McCain and it shows.
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