- Today the International Herald Tribune reports there are growing concerns over Obama’s fundraising machine as the possibility that he may not hit targets grows. I am always VERY skeptical of these reports from anyone as they tend to be media management of downplaying expectations so that any amount above the target is heralded. With that said, it could be true, we will see.

- One thing is for certain, the McCain campaign is now racking in the money. Raising $5 million in 5 hours in Chicago the excitement now being generated from Sarah Palin, a successful convention and the rebranding of McCain’s maverick message all seem to be paying off.

- Speaking of the payoff, Gallup now says Obama has the lead by 15% with independent voters in their latest poll. This is important. Reports from CNN yesterday said that their polls have been leveling off for months showing an increasingly static 50/50 race while the excitement level, once heavily favoring Obama amongst his voters, is now either equally match or exceeded in McCain circles. As I have been continually predicting we could well see a return of the 50/50 electorate we’ve seen in the last two elections. Dems turning out heavily for Dems, Republicans for Republicans. Leaving independents, as always, the most important voting block.

It will be VERY interesting to see state polls over the next three weeks. Specifically watch New Hampshire, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Everyone seems to be leaning Pennsylvania toward the Democrats, but if Obama/Palin make a major push in rural parts of the state it will force Obama/Biden to spend more resources. That is the strategy I would push on and let Obama spend resources in Colorado; Wisconsin and others. In my opinion Obama needs to push heavy in urban districts in Ohio and Michigan, let New Hampshire fall as it will and shore up the vote in Pennsylvania. Florida is most likely lost to Democrats this year. This election will be about squeezing every vote out of the states that matter most to the electoral college.

- The Obama campaign is hitting hard and fast on Palin & McCain’s “maverick” theme. Questioning Palin’s support of the “bridge to nowhere” and attempting to link McCain to Washington and the Bush administration. McCain & Palin have been pushing biography over issues and Obama is working hard to undermine their message by questioning that biography. The media seems to be doing the same, starting first with the announcement of Palin’s daughter’s pregnancy and now moving onto her faith.