As I have said about the Iowa polls for Obama I will repeat for Clinton. This is one poll, the slight lead is in the margin of error and if you look at the trend it is a three-way race with no statistical leader. But the Iowa poll does contradict some previously reported ideas. The first is that Clinton leads with women in the poll. There has been some reporting suggesting that women are running away from Clinton to Obama. Not in this poll. Meanwhile Obama leads with men. There has been continued suggestion that men were racing to Clinton and unlikely to vote for Obama. Not true in this poll either.
The second is to the most interesting thing to me. If a candidate fails to get 15% of the vote they get to recast. 74% said they would recast if given the choice. Obama comes in first on second choice with 30%, however Clinton comes in second with 29% while Edwards gets 37%. The media consensus thus far as been to point out a previous poll showing Edwards and Obama getting the majority of the second choices with Clinton having no shot.
Obviously this is one poll and we will need to see if the trend continues but what I find interesting isn’t that Clinton’s lead shrunk, as most other media outlets are reporting, but that it shrunk and Richardson was the benefactor in this. Again too early to tell but it is interesting Obama wasn’t the benefactor but Richardson.
At Pollster.com you can find the latest Advantage/Majority Opinion statewide surveys of voters in Florida conducted 9/6 through 9/1. The results:
Among 500 Democratic likely voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 36%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (18%), and former Sen. John Edwards (9%) in a statewide primary. All other candidates receive less than 5% each, and 21% are undecided.
Among 500 Republican likely voters, former Sen. Fred Thompson leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads (27% to 21%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 9% and former Gov. Mitt Romney 8%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each and 25% are undecided.
So I have been dusting off my Excel knowledge (not going as smoothly as I had hoped) and have been collecting information together for the ‘08 election. It is taking some time but I thought I would share information as I collect it together.
First thing I find interesting is how stable the polling has been for the most part on the Democratic side. Right now I have twelve national polls in the sheet from January 07 until this very week of July 07. In that time there has been little movement. The following shows you Sen. Clinton vs. Sen. Obama vs John Edwards in the last seven months. (Click to enlarge)
RealClearPolitics has the story of New State Polls: IA, FL, OH, PA, & GA and things are looking up for Fred Thompson who is now either first or second in all five states and he hasn’t even announced yet.
Meanwhile Clinton still leads in all five states and specifically in three states is beating Obama in Florida 38% to Obama’s 15%, Ohio 40% to Obama’s 12% & Pennsylvania 32% to Obama’s 18%.
Twenty years ago the survey research profession — having grown comfortable with telephone interviewing as an alternative to personal interviewing for conducting surveys — worried mostly about the roughly 7% of U.S. households that could not be interviewed because they had no telephone. Today our concern is somewhat different, and potentially more serious. According to government statistics released last month, nearly 13% of U.S. households (12.8%) cannot now be reached by the typical telephone survey because they have only a cell phone and no landline telephone.
New national polling conducted by USA Today/Gallup shows Hillary Clinton (33%) with double-digit leads over Barack Obama (21%) if Al Gore is in the running (which he hasn’t but pollsters asked anyway). With Gore out of the race the lead grows by 1% with Clinton at 39% & Obama at 26% putting Edwards at a distant third.
Meanwhile Fred Thompson, who also isn’t officially running but almost definitely will, came in second for Republicans with 19% over McCain at 18%. It is not statistically significant but most believe Thompson will receive a further boost when he actually announces and is further evidence that McCain, who entered the race as the presumptive front-runner, is in trouble. Giuliani still is the favorite with 28%.
