The straw poll in Ames, Iowa will be missing two candidates this year as the Giuliani & McCain camps say they will skip the event. Incase you are wondering a straw poll is an informal type of opinion poll, it is not binding but the Iowa ritual has been a staple for Republicans every four years (except in the case of an incumbent President) since 1979.
The event is seen as an early “test of strength” in Iowa and is usually covered as an overall test of strength of candidates by the media.
The Giuliani campaign cited the expense (estimated at around $3 million +) and the movement of primaries in large states as the reason the candidate won’t participate.
To win the straw poll candidates must purchase the tickets of those who attend. Essentially a campaign buys a $30 ticket for someone in Iowa to attend and in return they receive a vote. Hence the cost. But in addition the campaigns also pay for transportation and then pamper these individuals. It is used as a fundraiser for the Iowa caucuses to be held in January of 2008.
From the article:
“The straw poll actually could in fact take away Iowa’s significance, if we’re not careful,†Mr. Nussle (former Iowa Representative) told reporters. “It’s not a serious event in the grand scheme of picking a nominee. And at this time in our history, with the war on terror and economic challenges facing our country, we need to have a serious conversation about our nominee and not just have, you know, these kind of fund-raising straw polls.â€Â
A new Gallup Values and Belief national survey of 1,003 adults (conducted 5/10 through 5/13) finds:
49% of Americans consider themselves “pro-choice,” 45% say “pro-life.”
56% say abortions should be “legal under certain circumstances,” 26% say “legal under any,” and 18% say “illegal in all.”
53% would not like to see Roe v. Wade overturned; 35% would.
Another way to look at this, however, is that relatively few Americans are positioned at either extreme of the spectrum of beliefs — saying abortion should be legal in either all cirumstances (26%) or illegal in all circumstances (18%). The majority falls somewhere in the middle.
There is interesting historic data in the survey showing attitudes have always consistently been in the middle for the country.
I am VERY SLOWLY getting the polling section of the site together but I thought I would point to a new WNBC/Marist poll. It shows not only does Sen. Clinton lead the other Democratic candidates with double digits BUT she also for the first time is polling ahead of potential Republican rivals. It is a slight lead but it is a lead at that.
This poll follows a recent Gallup poll (the first revealed after the debates) which also had Sen. Clinton leading double digits over Sen. Barack Obama & others.
Latest polling results:
1) An astonishingly high amount of those polled 65% say they are interested in the ‘08 election. It isn’t even March 2007 yet, that is a huge number.
2) Giuliani has a 2-1 lead over McCain (though his standing on social issues make even those who support him now less likely to vote for him in the long run according to those polled)
3) Romney got killed in this round polling lower than Newt Gingrich who currently is not running
4) Clinton still leads Dems but Obama is gaining. The gain is 100% attributed to black voters
- Quick polling data for today. The Poughkeepsie Post reports on some polling data saying that in NYS Senator Hillary Clinton is the favorite amongst Democrats for the nomination in 2008 while Former NY mayor Giuliani had virtually the same support 1/3rd of those polled, as Arizona Senator John McCain. Though it should be remembered McCain has been in the presidential limelight a lot more these past few months.
Trailing in the polling was outgoing NYS Governor Pataki who only had 7% of the support. In a match up between Clinton and Giuliani the poll has Clinton by a wide margin, however two earlier polls showed different numbers. This is coming off a landslide election win for Clinton so in the months to come those numbers could well even out.
As for some polling issues there is actually a pretty interesting debate happening about polling at the moment which strikes at the heart of big media vs. Web and independence. Many traditional pollsters and newspaper critics and the like aren’t very happy about the way online poll watchers like electoral-vote.com and pollster.com tabulate their data.
Basically these online sites use public polling data, take the newest polls, average out the numbers, then use somewhat similar methodology to make a prediction about winners. It’s a pretty basic, somewhat common sense and logical way to do things. It also isn’t a) the only way and b) in my opinion it demystifies polling data to a level most people can follow as opposed to how it is often presented in more traditional press.
Most important of all it is giving traditional poll watchers a bit of a run for their money.
