Iowa’s Democratic Governor Tom Vilsack officially announced his campaign for the presidency today. Text of his announcement speech was retrieved 11-30-2006

“Christie, thank you. It sure feels good to be home. I want to thank Christie, Jess, and Doug for their love, support, and inspiration. Without them I would not be here today. As a family we are committed to this campaign and this effort - you can be sure of that. And I want to thank all of you for being here and for your friendship and support for so many years. My life was profoundly changed and made better when you welcomed me into your community 30 years ago.

Three weeks ago, Americans courageously voted to create change. We sent a clear message that we wanted our country led in a new and better direction. But our job is not done. We have more work to do.

Today in the White House, we have a president whose first reflex is to divide and conquer…who preys on insecurities and fears for partisan gain…who has tried to rob us of the very asset that has made the United States the greatest country on earth: Our sense of community, optimism and can-do spirit.

In the last election, Americans were not fooled by political tricks or gimmicks. We said in one voice, from all regions of the country, for our children and grandchildren: Tomorrow does matter.

That is why I am here today — to bring even bolder change and build an even stronger future for our great nation.
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Thoughts
Well first off, if you haven’t noticed I am going to try and keep the Geek Corner posts a little more organized. Daily Thoughts at the top of the post before you jump to “read more” and then presidential news under, you guessed it, “President”, Senate News under “Senate” and, well, you get the gist. I will also switch over to a more courteous form of referencing people. Instead of taking the short hand of saying Giuliani, or Clinton or Hillary or Tom I will cite people as Senator Clinton, Former Mayor Giuliani, President George Walker Bush and so on.

As for my thoughts, one thing to remember throughout the 2008 election campaign and something I will probably write about further, is that speculation and prognostication is the name of the game for political pundits, candidates, campaigns, columnists and news organizations. Speculating is a fact of life and one of the joys of politics. With that said when people speculate without facts, then what seems like an informed opinion doesn’t often lead to results in reality, making speculation somewhat useless.

For instance there has been plenty of speculation about Senator Hillary Clinton’s potential campaign since, really now, 1992. There have been scores of books, movies, column space and interviews devoted to the topic for fourteen years now and it has all added up to, well, mostly nothing at all.

Before the 2006 election many individuals from a wide variety of fields speculated on rumors that if the Democrats won back control of the Senate Harry Reid would step aside and Hillary Clinton would run for majority leader leaving any presidential ambitions aside. A plausible notion and one spread throughout many different news programs, columns and Internet sites. At this moment it hasn’t happened. Leading one to wonder where the epicenter of that speculation came from. Was there ever any credible information or just conclusions based on nuggets of information and what seemed like logic?

After the election many speculated that because Senator Clinton spent so much money on a campaign she had deadlocked, it was a sign that she was showing her political might and setting up a presidential campaign. Again plausible, somewhat logical, but not truly based on any real information. Like a political playbook revealed by a staffer or consultant or Senator Clinton herself.

Now there are many articles and news reports citing speculation that Senator Barack Obama has thrown off the potential Clinton Campaign. The thoughts coming out are that Senator Clinton will not run because of the enormous upsurge in support for Senator Obama. Of course neither Senator Obama has said he is running nor has Senator Clinton. That hasn’t stopped the speculation though (Obama is Going For It)

Political Wire today noted an appearance on FOX News by Iowa’s Democratic Party Chairman speculating on that note. The story is now making the rounds.

The problem with this speculation is that it is based on rumors and hearsay and basic logic. The initial story gets picked up and cited in places like Political Wire. There isn’t a problem with that as it is news that someone speculates, but then it also gets picked up by other publications who then cite Political Wire and not the original source.

Then those secondary publications get cited as having the story and before you know it a small bit of rumor is now in every national publication and on television as a veiled fact. “So and so is reporting that” means your local station or national network isn’t the one bringing you the facts, just reporting on a valid story. Though that valid story was produced by someone speculating without facts.

My point about speculation is this. It is unavoidable, it is interesting and sometimes it produces real results. Most of the time though it should be taken with a grain of salt. I don’t know if Senator Clinton is going to run. This blog will continue to point out the speculation, find the facts and then wait and see what happens. It will report on what is being said, who said it and when possible cite original sources and try to deconstruct spin.
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Thoughts
Things are picking up in the 2008 Election with almost everyone who has ever been elected to office seemingly considering a bid for the White House. With Giuliani & McCain dominating headlines Democratic runs haven’t gotten much play in the Geek Corner lately. Today though there is plenty of news and potential candidates to report on.

Meanwhile I have been finishing John McCain’s first autobiography Faith of My Fathers at a much slower but more enjoyable pace then I had planned. Writer Nora Ephron was on Charlie Rose the other night and she gave some thoughts on McCain and his potential supporters. She noted that McCain, in her opinion, was a guy’s guy. That because of his heroic experiences in Vietnam and the story of his life men gravitate to him in a way that she understood but couldn’t relate to.

She noted that many men she knows who wouldn’t ever consider voting for a Republican are big supporters of McCain. I dismissed her thoughts when I first heard them but as I read through his book I do ponder them a bit. His story and the tales of his father and grandfather are quite endearing. I would imagine to anyone but I do wonder if I find them more interesting as a man then a woman might.

I only bring it up because women, being a slightly larger majority, play an obviously large role in deciding elections. Though Hillary Clinton could run Ephron also noted that her support at the moment would be for Obama. So as the election plays out the question of how women might vote could be a more interesting outcome then a simple man/women down the line outcome.

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President
The Huffington Post (and many other sites) look at a new Quinnipiac University poll showing Sen. Bill Frist #18 ranking at the bottom for Republicans and John Kerry #20 at the bottom for Democrats in participants feelings about figures. Rudy Giuliani ranked #1 overall, Barack Obama #2 and John McCain #3. The polls ask participants (presumably of all political makeups) to rank their feelings about a particular politician on a scale from 1 - 100. The list includes all politicians both currently in and out of office.

Newt Gingrich who is taking a unique approach to campaigning for the presidency has also taken a unique stand on the issue of Free Speech according to CNN’s report from a Manchester Union Leader. Gingrich said that the nation might have to consider “a different set of rules” to reduce terrorists ability to use the Internet and recruit with their message. More information is still coming in about the event and what Gingrich meant specifically.

Co-Founders of HotSoup.com give their predictions for 2008. From Ron Fournier at MSNBC.

Senate
Julia C. Martinez writes in the Denver Post that Colorado Senator Wayne Allard will not seek reelection in 2008. Allard had pledged to only seek two terms which are up in 2008.

Jason Stahl of The Minnesota Daily looks at the 2008 Senate Races.

2006 Aftermath
Bob Von Sternberg writes for the Minneapolis - St. Paul Star Tribune that third party candidates did not do so hot in 2006 trailing far behind their Democratic and Republican counterparts.

Hope everyone is enjoying their return to work and their day of shopping online at the companies expense!

Steve Friess writes on IndyStar.com about the importance of getting good domain names quick in politics.

In an editorial for The Washington Times Rick Amato says we shouldn’t write off Republican Duncan Hunter as a presidential candidate. - Hunter appeared on Meet the Press yesterday. You can now download a copy of the show by visiting their site.

Bret Hayworth of the Sioux City Journal looks at the debate over Gov. and soon to announce for 2008 Tom Vilsack’s legacy.

Dick Polman of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes that Senator Hillary Clinton could run and win in 2008.

The Washington Post looks at race in 2008 and how the two top Democratic contenders, a woman and an African American, may shape the election and the country.

Blogger Connecticut Bob looks at the primary schedule for 2008.

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Republican Senator Sam Brownback could be the latest to join into 2008. He said he is still not ready for a full announcement but that he has talked to his family about it.

Brownback could join the race as a heavy fiscal and social conservative playing against John McCain and Rudy Giuliani and joining the recent attacks of Mitt Romney against moderate candidates running.

The Weekend Roundup

Mayor Giuliani has registered his exploratory committee with the Federal Election Committee taking the next step after creating his state exploratory committee.

Ian Urbina and Christopher Drew of the New York Times write about the foibles of election technology and the possibility of the continued problems with voting irregularities and shutdowns might not be solved by 2008.
Comedian and radio talk show host Al Franken told Lou Dobbs he will decide this weekend whether he will challenge Republican Norm Coleman for his Minnesota Senate seat in 2008.

Russell Berman reports for the New York Sun that Mayor Giuliani received some unsolicited help from a radio spot in Iowa and New Hampshire.

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The first hurdle of the Holiday Season is over. Traditionally many seeking the presidency wait until after the holidays to officially announce their candidacy. Right before Turkey Day most potential candidates are hesitant to make an announcement that would be tied too close to the just held November elections while the prospect of a run in the next election seems both distant and daunting.

The usual response to any questions about running sound like this. “I plan on taking some time over the coming holiday season to sit down with my family, look over the options and discuss the consequences and then make a decision in the New Year.”

Thanksgiving has come and gone which means in a little over a month we should be hearing some major announcements. Until then, enjoy the news in The Corner and enjoy the shopping!

The Race for the Conservative Soul
Many in the Republican Party are looking over the data from the 2006 election to see what it all means for their party. One of the big issues in 2008 for Republicans is how will moderate candidates fair in the primaries and how will conservative candidates fair in the general election? The same can be said about moderate and liberal candidates for Democrats but with what many see as a national referendum against Republicans in 2006 the debate is raging much stronger within the GOP.

This issue will undoubtedly dominate the primary season in the Republican Party. With two moderate Republicans, Giuliani and McCain (though some would question the McCain moderate label) dominating the opinion polls at the moment some potential conservative candidates are seeing a chance to rise. The first is Republican Gov. Mitt Romney who has officially opened the debate in the Party, and all before anyone has actually announced.

In an interview with the Examiner Romney questioned the conservative credentials of John McCain & Rudy Giuliani saying “I’m a conservative Republican, there’s no question about that. I’m at a different place than the other two.”

Romney specifically attacked McCain’s position on gay marriage which he called disingenuous. McCain has said he is against gay marriage but that the issue should be decided upon by the states and not with a federal ban.

Romney has also used abortion as another issue where he claims very conservative credentials. It should be noted however that Romeny’s views on abortion have been questioned in the past. In 1994 while running for the Senate he vowed to keep abortion “safe and legal in this country” and in 2002 as a candidate for governor he said he would not change the states abortion laws. Romney has claimed several times that his views on abortion have “evolved” since 1994.

Meanwhile John Ferguson compares the two latest speeches by John McCain to the speeches given by Ronald Reagan in 1977 which helped him become the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. In many ways this election could go a long way in defining what a “conservative” and a Republican are. With John McCain looking at fiscal and governance issues and harkening back to Ronald Reagan and others like Mitt Romney looking at social and religious issues that have dominated the party for the last few decades.

The Roundup

Robert Novak writes in the Washington Post that only one Republican, expected republican presidential candidate Duncan Hunter, would go on record to discuss Republican dismay over the firing of now former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. To sum it up, Hunter was not happy.

The New York Daily News is reporting that Hillary Clinton is pushing for the 2008 Democratic Convention to be held in NYC. At the moment NYC and Denver Colorado are the two cities left in the running. Clinton’s aides say the choice has nothing to do with a potential presidential run.

Meanwhile the Benton Evening News has more information about Hunter’s recent visit to Illinois including his stop at an Army National Guard Armory.

The NY Daily News reports that Democratic Presidential Candidate in 2004 the Rev. Al Sharpton is considering a run for the presidency again in 2008.

This is the first Thanksgiving for ElectionGeek and I wanted to take a moment and thank everyone for visiting thus far. The site is slowly but surely growing as is the 2008 Election! There will be plenty to do around here after the sun sets on this holiday. Until then, I will enjoy the turkey

As for the holiday itself, though thanksgivings had been held at different times by different people since its first official celebration on December 4, 1619 in the Virginia colony, it was during the Civil War when Abraham Lincoln made the observance a national holiday. He was urged by a series of editorials by Sarah Josepha Hale to make the observance, which had been declared sporadically by the presidents before him, sometimes twice or more in a year, an annual one. The holiday was started with the following words:

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God.

In the midst of a civil war of unequaled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union.

Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defence, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle or the ship; the axe has enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consiousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom.

No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy. It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and one voice by the whole American People.

I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to His tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquillity and Union.

In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Seal of the United States to be affixed.

Done at the City of Washington, this Third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the Independence of the Unites States the Eighty-eighth.

By the President: Abraham Lincoln

William H. Seward,
Secretary of State

All the snow melted from yesterday and it looks like we could reach the 60’s here in Upstate NY for Thanksgiving. You have got to love our weather. Nah, no you don’t, you can feel free to hate it like the rest of us.

Anyway the latest potential candidate for 2008 is Newt Gingrich whom is running what CNN labels a Stealth candidacy. Which means basically he is running without running by talking about what he would run on without actually talking about running. Confused? I am too.

From what I gather Gingrich will launch a 527 group that can raise a ton of money from which he can spread his ideas about the future and the direction of the country. If a candidate comes along and adopts said ideas then he may support them (or more likely seek their support for him getting a nice job in the administration in return, Secretary of State or Defense, Homeland Security? Just my prediction).

If next year or so there is no candidate that shares his values or who looks capable of being a moderate and someone who plays to the right at the same time he will announce his candidacy. The nice catch is he will have spent millions of dollars in the interim to get people to believe in the things he believes in so when it comes time to vote in the primary and hopefully the general he will seem like the prime candidate.

Pretty clever, but will it work? In past elections third party candidates have often run in this direction. Few have had Gingrich’s appeal before the run (he polls pretty high, often third in line after McCain and Giuliani), few have had his national stature (though some of that stature comes with negative memories for moderates, such as the impeachment of Bill Clinton while acquiring personal ethics violations for himself) and most important few had the desire to get the actual nomination of a party.

Exceptions? Yes of course there have been, some have gotten the nomination after being outsiders, some have found third parties after failing to get the nomination, but more often then not this kind of strategy has been favored by those on the outside who want their ideas spread more then they want the job. I get the sense Gingrich wants the job and by promoting the ideas more then the man he will find widespread support of the ideas but the face of someone else.