Nobody Knows How the Iowa Caucus Will Turn Out


January 1st, 2008

The Obama campaign is celebrating new numbers from the final Des Moines Register poll before the caucuses. It shows Obama 32, Clinton 25, Edwards 24 with a margin of error at 3.5%. It also shows good news for Republican Mike Huckabee.

David Yespen of the Register looked over the numbers and gives cautious advice for both candidates.

Meanwhile the latest CNN/Opinion Dynamics polls have difference news. Clinton 33, Obama 31, Edwards 22 while on the Republican side Rommey 31, Huckabee 28, Thompson 13.

So what do we know? Honestly, almost nothing. There are different theories for how almost any Republican could take Iowa and how any of the top three Democrats can. In the Democratic race especially, knowing that some voters will be able to caucus twice and that both Clinton & Obama have courted new voters while Edwards has been staying steady with tried and true ones seems to be leaving everyone with mixed feelings.

My advice? If anyone professes to you that they know what the outcome will be, whether a friend, teacher, pundit or candidate, don’t trust them because they have no idea.

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Posted in Election 2008 |

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