We Just Don’t Know (AGAIN)


May 5th, 2008

Tomorrow Indiana and North Carolina vote and there is universal agreement of the following three potential outcomes by pundits:

1) Hillary Clinton could stay in the race
2) Hillary Clinton could drop out of the race

There you have it!

OK let me go a little more in depth.

Just two weeks ago it seemed like Senator Obama was going to be the big winner tomorrow. He has been campaigning and outspending Clinton in the two states by a major margin and the “momentum” seemed on his side. Then came the Rev. Wright controversy, Obama’s original support for his pastor, then his sudden denouncement. Voters aren’t sure what to make of it. Now Obama’s lead, by some polls, seem exhausted and suddenly Clinton is on the rise.

So…

1) a) For Clinton a win in both states would give her iron clad reasoning to continue on. We could still see a rush of superdelegates.
b) Superdelegates may see the victories as a sudden shifting in the race, a potential sign of things to come in the general and just might continue to avoid making a decision prolonging the race further.
2) A win in just Indiana, where she is more likely to find victory, and a good showing in NC could still give her a reason to continue. However superdelegates could still start rushing toward Obama anyway thereby defeating that reasoning.
3) Clinton could lose both, superdelegates could start flooding to Obama and Clinton could bow out.

So there you have it, basically as we’ve been before ever primary we have no idea what will happen to the race. It could end, it could continue, who knows.

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