I have written about the polling data coming out of this race a few times now and always with skepticism. There was a sudden bounce for Obama around the time of the economic crisis and until late last week that bounce was holding. Something strange happened though late last week into early this week, a set of polling data came out showing that the race was in Obama’s favor but within the margin of error. Increasingly it the polls showed tightening with independent voters becoming somewhat more receptive to McCain.

The difficulty is that there are still polls showing Obama with huge gains. Most of these polls assume large turnouts among African Americans, young voters and a shrinking Republican population. The question becomes, are they oversampling and overestimating the turnout with youth and the effect of African American turnout or are they dead right?

A Pew Research Center poll released yesterday shows a 15-point lead for Obama, a result based on relaxed criteria for when to consider an African American respondent a likely voter, said Andrew Kohut, president of the center. He said the poll shows that roughly 12 percent of the electorate this year is black, up from 2004, with a similar increase among younger voters. Kohut defended this approach, saying there are historically high levels of interest in this contest among both demographic groups. At the same time, he added, “we’ve consistently shown less enthusiasm and engagement among Republicans than is typical, and the composition of the electorate shows that.” (Washington Post

Likewise state polling appears to have the same problem. Many of the estimates are placing Obama well above three hundred in the electoral vote. The same problems with the national polls exist with the states and so these polls are showing traditionally Republican states, including McCain’s homestate of Arizona, close to turning over for Obama. This seems unlikely unless you consider that in the last few years large portions of the population have moved. There has been a resurgence in the city populations of many Southern and some midwestern states as people seek jobs. Is this shift enough when mixed with the dislike of the president to turn conservative voters over to a liberal Democratic candidate? It could be or it could also be a sign of trouble in predictions.

This normally wouldn’t be too much of a problem as it wouldn’t be the first time Americans have had an election called a few weeks ahead by pollsters and pundits only to see a massive shift of expectations near election day. The race this year is altogether different largely because of race.

Many pundits are already building up the case that if election results don’t mirror the polls it will be because of voter racism. These voters seemingly would have told pollsters they were undecided or supporting Obama because they felt that was the socially correct answer, when left alone in the voting booth though some believe they will switch.

It seems likely with all of the evidence that Obama will win Tuesday, but there is enough reason to doubt the polling to hold off. Unfortunately many in the media and online haven’t done so, instead giving the perception that there is no discrepancy in the polls and instead that the race is already decided. My personal fear is that the polls are wrong and the only conclusion offered on election night will be one that puts race front and center instead of the perceptions of pollsters.

Lets just hope for the best.

From this point on I won’t be reporting on polling data on this site, not until after both conventions are done. While polling data makes for interesting fodder for television news, the opinions of three hundred to a thousand surveyed previous voters across the nation in July is a very worthless indicator of how over 100 Million eligible voters will cast their ballots come November.

If you must watch polling data here is my advice, simply focus on state-by-state polls. While the sample sizes are still way too small to be representative you are at least looking at a smaller target population to begin with. Beyond the pure numbers though, look to see what people are thinking and saying, what they feel is important because those are the indicators the campaigns will use to shape their policies in the coming months.

Try and hold off until AFTER the conventions. This is going to be an election the media is going to try a billion times over to call but it is unique in many ways. No incumbent, no VP, an aging Senator, a black Senator, two Wars being fought, economic distress, a Congress with a lower approval rating than a very unpopular president, we just don’t know.

In addition the issues discussed over the summer are almost never the issues covered in October. While everyone is declaring “economy, economy, economy, Iraq” it is typically gay marriage, flag burning, Elian Gonzalez, Confederate flag, infidelity charge issues that drive people to polls. So as you watch polling and you watch candidates know that a lot changes.

Most Americans, those in the center and the suburbs and rural parts of this nation, don’t make their minds up until after the conventions, the debates and the bulk of the coverage is over. They decide in the final weeks and days and they do it with a gut feeling of whom they “like” more or which candidate shares their values or their vision for that time and place.

So in short not one bit of the polling matters. All we know is that the president is unpopular, the World is moving rapidly and everything we think we know will change.

The latest polling shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 54% to 36% in North Carolina. With voters who have never voted in a primary before he leads 60%-32%.

Meanwhile Clinton is leading Obama 58% to 29% in Kentucky.

I keep seeing a lot of odd information coming out of the polling. Obama seems to be catching up nationally but a CBS poll finds that amongst Super Tuesday states Clinton holds a massive advantage. Everyone is reading into conflicting information about early voting. Most of the early voting and absentee ballots were cast when Clinton was riding high but there are conflicting reports on whether pollsters are taking these early voters into consideration.

Basically the idea right now is that people were so turned off by Bill Clinton and so turned on by the whopping win in South Carolina for Barack Obama (Also the Kennedy endorsements) that many are jumping the Clinton ship. I don’t know that we can really believe that and in California where a very large percentage of the state votes absentee, I just don’t know what we can expect.

Then there is this nugget, one poll shows 53% of Democrats believe we are making progress in Iraq. That could be very true our it could be one more indication that these polls are not entirely accurate.

So in short as I keep saying the following, polls taken with such small sample sizes in such a short period of time between contests and across such a wide array of states and spun in so many different ways and showing conflicting information probably should not be trusted.

My conclusion? I am not going to be citing polls in the next twenty-four hours as any indication of voting on the Democratic side. Republican polling seems to be a little more stable though there are probably problems with those numbers too so I am just going to avoid polls altogether and not get on the “lets make predictions” bandwagon. With everything running so close for Democrats we probably won’t know until Tuesday night or Wednesday or even later what is happening.

According to PEW Research 40% of Americans in a new survey say the media spends too much coverage to the 2008 presidential campaign. At the same time only 49% could name both winners of the Iowa Caucus.

Other interesting insights from the study:
- Americans over the age of 30 are more than twice as likely as those under 30 to know both winners in Iowa.
- More Republicans (45%) than Democrats (32%) say that the press is paying too much attention to the campaign.
- Republican voters were far more able to name Huckabee (61%) than were Democrats (45%) or independents (51%). Yet, reflecting Obama’s greater visibility, even among Republicans more could name Obama as the Democratic victor than Huckabee as the GOP winner (76% vs. 61%).

From Gallup’s USA Today Blog the polling firm has been studying the effect of a growing number of “cell phone only households”.

Study after study has shown that in general, the effect of excluding from the interview process those who only have cell phones has not seemed to affect the overall marginal results of political studies.

Still, Gallup has been studying and investigating the implications of cell phone only households for well over a year now. And, as of Jan. 1, 2008, Gallup has made the decision to include cell phone interviewing as part of the sample used for its general population studies.

Check out the above linked post for more information on Gallup’s new methodology and how they will implement the cell phones and get their sample population.

Here are the latest results from a FOX/News Opinion Dynamics poll of 500 likely South Carolina Republican voters.

John McCain – 25%, Huckabee 18%, Romney 17%, Thompson 9%, Giuliani 5%, Paul 5%, Hunter 1%
Undecided or (Don’t Know( is at 19%

Margin of error +/- 4%

Of those who said they would vote for a candidate 58% say they are certain they vote for John McCain while 57% the same for Romney and 60% say the same for Huckabee. Meanwhile 20% of respondents named Huckabee as their second choice, 19% John McCain, 14% Romney, 13% Giuliani, 10% Thompson, 4% Paul and 1% Hunter. 17% did not know who their second choice would be.

The economy is the most important issue with 17%, Immigration and the Iraq war tied for second with 16% each, Homeland security was fourth with 15%, meanwhile health care and social issues tied for fifth with 10%.

The #1 most important quality SC surveyed said was important for a leader was “He stands up for what he believe in” with 47%. Next is “He is a true conservative” with only 21% of the vote.

McCain won out on “honest & trustworthy” with Huckabee second and Romney a distant third. McCain won out as as a “strong leader” with 35% with Romney a distant second at 20% and Huckabee won out as a “true conservative” with Romney coming in a close second.

Gary Langer director of polling at ABC has some interesting thoughts and questions about the polling fiasco in New Hampshire:

But we need to know it through careful, empirically based analysis. There will be a lot of claims about what happened – about respondents who reputedly lied, about alleged difficulties polling in biracial contests. That may be so. It also may be a smokescreen – a convenient foil for pollsters who’d rather fault their respondents than own up to other possibilities – such as their own failings in sampling and likely voter modeling.

John Zogby offers up six points to look at with the New Hampshire numbers:

5. Going into the New Hampshire primary, we certainly did see Clinton holding on to a significant lead among women and older voters. But we were focusing on Obama’s massive lead among younger and independent voters. We seem to have missed the huge turnout of older women that apparently put Clinton over the top.

Zogby notes that Clinton’s numbers did go up in his polling for the last 24 hours after her debate performance but they were trending polls and averaged in the massive leads they saw after Obama’s win in Iowa.

USA Today/Gallup
Dems: Obama 41, Clinton 28, Edwards 19.

GOP: McCain 34, Romney 30, Huckabee 13, Paul 8, Giuliani 8.

CBS – Obama – 35%, Clinton – 28%, Edwards – 28%
With Independents Obama leads Clinton, 41% – 24%
With Democrats Clinton leads Obama 33% – 30%

Rasmussen

Obama 33%, Clinton – 28%, Edwards – 18%
Obama wins out Independents 2-1 over Clinton
With Democrats they are about even

McCain – 32%, Romney – 31%, Huckabee – 11%, Giuliani – 10%, Paul – 8%, Thompson – 3%
Independents will make up an estimated 27% of the Republican primary vote which is down from 32%. Independents are more likely to vote for Barack Obama than John McCain.

Marist
Dems: Obama 36, Clinton 28, Edwards 22. Error margin: 4 points.

GOP: McCain 35, Romney 31, Huckabee 13. Error margin: 4.5 points.

Nationally
Rassmussen

Clinton – 33%, Obama – 29%, Edwards – 20%

30-26-24 over Clinton and Obama meanwhile he is the clear second place winner 42-29-28 over Clinton and Obama. As MSNBC reports this is the first time Edwards has lead in an Iowa poll since July.

Huckabee is still the leader with Republicans.

As I say with all these Iowa polls, it is ONE POLL and there is still no evidence of a trend. Another one could easily come out tomorrow dismissing this one so don’t get all crazy.