So I have been dusting off my Excel knowledge (not going as smoothly as I had hoped) and have been collecting information together for the ‘08 election. It is taking some time but I thought I would share information as I collect it together.

First thing I find interesting is how stable the polling has been for the most part on the Democratic side. Right now I have twelve national polls in the sheet from January 07 until this very week of July 07. In that time there has been little movement. The following shows you Sen. Clinton vs. Sen. Obama vs John Edwards in the last seven months. (Click to enlarge)

There has been basically little to no movement in polling data despite all the efforts made thus far. Clinton has stayed in the mid thirties to forties, Obama has stayed in the mid twenties and Edwards has been in the teens.

The last little spike was over the last couple days and was marked by FOX News/Opinion Dynamics which looked at 900 registered or Democratic leaning voters.

Obama has been raising an enormous amount of money, been noting a large surge of small campaign contributions and has been receiving pretty stellar media attention. Yet he has had relatively little movement either in National or most state polling. Are the people he is attracting new voters not accounted for in the polling? I would imagine yes, the question is are their numbers large enough that they will register in the primaries?

In the last two elections polling did not capture these voters either and many expected them to swing Democratic. However they still did not positively effect the election for Democrats.