The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE) released ‘Revised Estimates Show Higher Turnout than Expected Iowa Youth Turnout Rate More than Triples 65,000 Iowans under the Age of Thirty Participate in the Caucuses’. (.pdf)

13% of eligible Iowans under the age of 30 turned out an increase from 4% in 2004. Most interesting turned out not just for Senator Barack Obama but for Governor Mike Huckabee as well. (Remember in 2004 the Iowa Caucus was not held for Republicans as George W. Bush was the incumbent).

The turnout rate has historically been low in Iowa caucuses, but the youth turnout rate
was much higher tonight than in recent years. This result continues a trend observed in
other elections since 2000. In the 2006 congressional elections, the voter turnout rate
among 18-to-29-year-olds increased by three percentage points compared to the previous
congressional election of 2002. And in the 2004 presidential election, the national youth
voter turnout rate rose 9 percentage points compared to 2000, reaching 49 percent. In
2004, under-30-year olds were registered to vote at the highest rate in 30 years.

#1 - Evangelical’s Drove the Caucus
- Based on entrance polling 60% of caucus goers were evangelical christians of which 46% went to Huckabee and only 19% went in for Romney.

#2 - 68% Supported President Bush
- 20% of Caucus goers considered themselves enthusiastic about President Bush of which 38% voted for Huckabee. Meanwhile 48% said they were satisfied with President Bush of which 34% voted for Huckabee. Meanwhile only 26% of voters said they were dissatisfied and of those Huckabee won over 31% of the vote. Only 5% were angry at Bush of which 54% voted for Ron Paul.

#3 - Huckabee Dominated Issues
- Illegal Immigration was the top choice for 33%, War in Iraq 17% , Economy 26%, Terrorism 21%. On all issues Huckabee won.

#4 - Values Votes Mattered
- 45% of voters made their decision based on “Shares my values” of which 44% went to Mike Huckabee. and only 26% turned out for Romney. 33% supported a candidate because they “says what he means” of which 33% went for Huckabee and only 14% went for Romney. Only 21% voted on electability or experience of which Romney took both categories with McCain in second and Huckabee a distant third.

#5 - Decision Was Already Made
- 59% of Republican Caucus goers made up their mind a month ago or longer and they had decided on Mike Huckabee overwhelmingly.

MUST GET SLEEP Goodnight all

10:50 PM EST - 1732 Precincts Reporting

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.53%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 29.88%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.38%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.11%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.95%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.13%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.02%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1732 OF 1781
(PERCENTAGES ARE STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.)

10:17 PM EST - 1700 Precincts Reporting

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.39%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 29.95%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.47%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.12%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.92%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.12%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.02%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1700 OF 1781
(PERCENTAGES ARE STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.)

10:03 PM EST - Republicans - 72% Reporting

Mike Huckabee 28,762 34% 0
Mitt Romney 21,213 25% 0
Fred Thompson 11,522 14% 0
John McCain 11,281 13% 0
Ron Paul 8,549 10% 0
Rudy Giuliani 3,053 4% 0
Duncan Hunter 366 0% 0

9:59 PM EST - 1640 Precincts Reporting

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.15%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.00%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.61%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.14%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.95%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.13%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.03%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1640 OF 1781
(PERCENTAGES ARE STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.)

9:51 PM EST - 1600 Precincts Reporting

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 36.98%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.05%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.75%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.17%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.92%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.11%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.03%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1600 OF 1781
(PERCENTAGES ARE STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.)

Read the rest of this entry »

NBC is now declaring Senator Barack Obama the Democratic winner of the Iowa Caucus.

Well here at Election Geek of course. Want more?

Official
Iowa Democrats Live Updated Results Page

Iowa Republican Live Update Results Page

Web 2.0
Google Maps Live Iowa Caucus Returns Map

YouTube

Live Blogging
ABC News Blog

Caucus Cooler

Brave New Films & Young Turks

I will continue to add as I find

Just an FYI, today will be a day with MANY rumors being spread around the net that will hit minute by minute and then be denied minute by minute. So I am keeping this post open to collect whatever I find.

Rumor #1 - Fred Thompson Will Drop out of the Race Tonight

- Reported by Politico this morning claiming inside sources claimed Thompson would drop out barring a major showing in Iowa. The claim was denied twice by Thompson. First on CNN and then on FOX News.

CNN: Denied story about possibly dropping out, backing McCain. “I’ve never said that, I’ve never implied that, in public or in private.” Talked oil prices, CIA tapes. Repeated that having too much “personal ambition” is a danger for candidates.

Fox: Again denied story about dropping out, saying it was probably planted by rival campaign. “There is no such Thompson adviser. It is not something I have thought about or discussed with anybody.” Maintained he’s doing well in Iowa, said he didn’t get in the race late, others got in early. “We’ll see whether being in everyone’s face for two years and spending $100 million is necessary.”

- THEN Thompson said to Tim Russert:

“Some of us may get shellacked…We’ve got to recognize the signals that we’re given and respond accordingly.”

Rumor #2 - Richardson & Biden Are Asking Voters to Support Obama If They Don’t Reach Viability

Richardson

- First report came from Iowa Independent claiming Richardson had formed some kind of backend partnership with Obama’s campaign to ask his supporters to turn to Obama if they did not reach 15% viability in a precinct.

- The report THEN changed on the Independent saying it was a one way plan by the Richardson team, that it wasn’t definitely going to be implemented, if it was implemented it would be done secretly.

- The report was THEN updated with a response from Joaquin Guerra, Richardson’s national Online Director who denied any such deal was made.

- Meanwhile The New York Times is reporting from inside the Obama campaign that a deal has been made.

- THEN the report was updated to include an official response by David Plouff from the Obama campaign saying the campaign had made “no formal agreements” but “there are certainly places where our precinct captains want to work with Richardson” supporters.

Update: 6:08PM - Richardson tells CNN’s Wolf Blitzer there are “no deals” being made. Wants Iowans to make their own decision if they don’t reach viability.

Update: 10:09PM - Despite denials most agree that Richardson’s people must have been doing some dealmaking. More will undoubtedly come out on this.

Biden

The Washington Post reported:

A source close to the Biden campaign described a possible arrangement, now under discussion between the two camps, that could apply to certain precincts where Biden can’t meet the 15 percent viability threshold, but where he is backed by local officials with the clout to move Biden supporters to Obama. In return, Biden could capture some of Obama’s overflow in precincts where the Illinois senator has more than enough support to win.

- Meanwhile the official response from Biden:

“There are no discussions underway and there will be no deal with any campaign. We believe Sen. Biden is strong enough on his own. Everyone knows that Sen. Biden is a popular second choice for the supporters of all the other campaigns. We remain confident that Sen. Biden will surprise folks this evening.”

Marc Ambinder looks over projections for Iowa turnout and what it could mean. Conclusion? It could mean anything, still it is interesting to look over.

As I mentioned yesterday I was on the Shaun O Mac radio show last night to discuss politics and Iowa. You can listen to my appearance either using the player below or visiting the show site and listening to the 1/2/2008 11:00 PM show.

Thank you so Shaun for having me on.

Related Links
- LA Times helps support my thought that money might not be the deciding factor in Iowa

It has been a year of campaigning, a year of speculation and a year of spending millions of dollars and it has all been leading up to this moment, the start of the primary vote in Iowa.

At this point there is no clear winner on either side, no definitive sign that before the caucus begins at 7:00 PM Central time we will know any more than we know now. Plenty of predictions have been made, speculation about which candidates will drop out after tonight, but put short we just don’t know. With close poll numbers and dozens of scenarios for why any of the top three on each side can make it out, this is going to be a down to the wire moment.

So get yourselves some coffee, have a big lunch and make sure to hit Refresh a whole lot on Election Geek as I will be putting all the latest in both the blog and the sidebar.

The New York Times asks what if there is no clear winner in Iowa.

But what if it is not decisive?

What if at the end of Thursday, the three leading Democrats — former Senator John Edwards and Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama — are separated by a percentage point or two, leaving no one with the clear right of delivering a victory speech (or the burden of conceding)? A number of polls going into the final days have suggested that after all of this, the Democratic caucus on Thursday night could end up more or less a tie.

It is a real possibility and if there is no clear winner the Times suggests that all three leading camps on the Democratic side will be equally viable going into New Hampshire and the also rans might not feel the pressure to get out so fast.