January 10th, 2008
I am as guilty as anyone else in the media or blogosphere when it comes to New Hampshire. I assumed, like everyone assumed, because everyone assumed, helped others assume, that Barack Obama was going to run away with the win and because of that, we were witnessing the potential end of the Clinton campaign. What were we all thinking? (The same thing the Clinton campaign was, they though they would lose too!)
The truth is, polling often works and works well. There is almost no better way of finding out what people will do than asking them. However polling is not perfect, people lie, questions are asked in weird ways or at the wrong moments, but most importantly our “interpretations” of polling are often what get the nation into trouble, especially when everyone agrees on something without really looking into it.
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January 9th, 2008
After a few days of commentators on MSNBC praising Barack Obama’s strategy of not using race to divide the electorate, host Chris Matthews appeared on the networks Morning Joe program and claimed New Hampshire voters lied to pollsters because they were afraid to admit their racist feelings about voting for an african american. What are they putting in the water over there?
It wasn’t the only odd bit of logic or outrageous claim made by Matthews this morning. Rapid City Journal also saw the broadcast and recapped it quite well.
“She didn’t win on her merit,” Matthews said. “It was about the humiliation of Bill Clinton.”
Well,OK. But it doesn’t say much about Hillary, or New York voters.
Nor does Matthews’ position on the alleged polling lies say much about the strong turnout of women voters for Hillary in New Hampshire. But Matthews has it figured: Dumb voters in New York. Racists liars in New Hampshire. And a woman who isn’t even qualified for the Senate now back in the race for president. It beats simply saying you were wrong, I guess.
Matthews also said that from now on Obama would have to take 10% “off the white vote” in remaining states when looking at polls.
If video turns up I will be quick to post it!
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