USA Today/Gallup
Dems: Obama 41, Clinton 28, Edwards 19.

GOP: McCain 34, Romney 30, Huckabee 13, Paul 8, Giuliani 8.

CBS - Obama - 35%, Clinton - 28%, Edwards - 28%
With Independents Obama leads Clinton, 41% - 24%
With Democrats Clinton leads Obama 33% - 30%

Rasmussen

Obama 33%, Clinton - 28%, Edwards - 18%
Obama wins out Independents 2-1 over Clinton
With Democrats they are about even

McCain - 32%, Romney - 31%, Huckabee - 11%, Giuliani - 10%, Paul - 8%, Thompson - 3%
Independents will make up an estimated 27% of the Republican primary vote which is down from 32%. Independents are more likely to vote for Barack Obama than John McCain.

Marist
Dems: Obama 36, Clinton 28, Edwards 22. Error margin: 4 points.

GOP: McCain 35, Romney 31, Huckabee 13. Error margin: 4.5 points.

Nationally
Rassmussen

Clinton - 33%, Obama - 29%, Edwards - 20%

Republicans and Democrats with both be sitting with Charlie Gibson tonight at a roundtable to square off ahead of the New Hampshire primary. Both should provide for some VERY interesting television and if there is going to be any earth shattering, poll shattering, election shattering gaffes or breakout moments to either reinforce or destroy the Iowa Caucus results, it could happen tonight.

With less candidates than we’ve seen in both “debates” this year, more time will be focused in on the candidates and more time could potentially be had to explore, god forbid, issues! Especially on the Democratic side where only five candidates will be at the round table discussion and where the last few debates have mostly focused on the Clinton-Obama back and fourth. If Gibson does his job right we could actually start pulling out what is DIFFERENT about these candidates not just on style but substance.

Having said all that, expect that we could potentially learn nothing at all and this “debate” will be as near useless as all the others.

The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE) released ‘Revised Estimates Show Higher Turnout than Expected Iowa Youth Turnout Rate More than Triples 65,000 Iowans under the Age of Thirty Participate in the Caucuses’. (.pdf)

13% of eligible Iowans under the age of 30 turned out an increase from 4% in 2004. Most interesting turned out not just for Senator Barack Obama but for Governor Mike Huckabee as well. (Remember in 2004 the Iowa Caucus was not held for Republicans as George W. Bush was the incumbent).

The turnout rate has historically been low in Iowa caucuses, but the youth turnout rate
was much higher tonight than in recent years. This result continues a trend observed in
other elections since 2000. In the 2006 congressional elections, the voter turnout rate
among 18-to-29-year-olds increased by three percentage points compared to the previous
congressional election of 2002. And in the 2004 presidential election, the national youth
voter turnout rate rose 9 percentage points compared to 2000, reaching 49 percent. In
2004, under-30-year olds were registered to vote at the highest rate in 30 years.

Senator Barack Obama and Former Governor Mike Huckabee were able to go to sleep last night with the knowledge that they were winners and have an avalanch of positive media attention to wake up to. Just kidding, they went to bed last night knowing today marked the beginning of the race for New Hampshire. Woo Hoo! With just a few days to go, a debates ahead for the weekend and what will no doubt become increased media speculation about their overall viability and positions on issues, the race has just begun.

So where do we stand in New Hampshire? These are the latest tracking polls taken before last night. So expect bumps to both Obama & Huckabee in the next polls but this helps us know where the state was just before the vote and in the next couple of days we will know where it stands just after.

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll:

For Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads with 32%, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 26%, and John Edwards at 20%.

For Republicans, Sen. John McCain leads with 34%, followed by Mitt Romney at 30%, and Mike Huckabee at 10%.

(Hat tip: Political Wire)

7NEWS/Suffolk University

For Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton is ahead of her rivals with 37% support, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 25% and John Edwards at 15%.

For Republicans, Mitt Romney leads with 29%, followed by Sen. John McCain at 25%, Mike Huckabee at 13% and Rudy Giuliani at 9%.

(Hat tip: again Politicalwire)

MUST GET SLEEP Goodnight all

10:50 PM EST - 1732 Precincts Reporting

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.53%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 29.88%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.38%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.11%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.95%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.13%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.02%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1732 OF 1781
(PERCENTAGES ARE STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.)

10:17 PM EST - 1700 Precincts Reporting

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.39%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 29.95%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.47%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.12%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.92%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.12%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.02%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1700 OF 1781
(PERCENTAGES ARE STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.)

10:03 PM EST - Republicans - 72% Reporting

Mike Huckabee 28,762 34% 0
Mitt Romney 21,213 25% 0
Fred Thompson 11,522 14% 0
John McCain 11,281 13% 0
Ron Paul 8,549 10% 0
Rudy Giuliani 3,053 4% 0
Duncan Hunter 366 0% 0

9:59 PM EST - 1640 Precincts Reporting

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.15%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.00%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.61%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.14%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.95%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.13%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.03%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1640 OF 1781
(PERCENTAGES ARE STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.)

9:51 PM EST - 1600 Precincts Reporting

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 36.98%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.05%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.75%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.17%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 0.92%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.11%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.03%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 1600 OF 1781
(PERCENTAGES ARE STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.)

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