After Senator Clinton’s upset victory in New Hampshire some online turned to the possibility of voter disenfranchisement. I have to say I was personally a little dismissive of the claim and never mentioned it on the blog. There was a great post, here, on DailyKos that went through the arguments of why the claims probably added up to nothing but hearsay and bad logic. Meanwhile I have noted that there were many flaws in the assumptions made from the polls taken before the vote, so simply pointing to the polling doesn’t provide us with a good enough reason to assume disenfranchisement.
Meanwhile also remember that the exit polling showed Clinton & Obama in a heated race. It also showed that many voters made their decision at the last minute. So the polling, which showed a percentage of the vote was undecided, does somewhat square with the vote. Also many independents turned out for John McCain, again helping people square with the polls. Again, pollsters and pundits made bad assumptions.
With all of this in mind yesterday Dennis Kucinich began publicly asking for a recount. Under New Hampshire law apparently Kucinich is entitled to a recount, but he will have to pay for it. According to the Associated Press article linked above:
Candidates who lose by 3 percentage or less are entitled to a recount for a $2,000 fee. Candidates who lose by more must pay for the full cost. Kucinich’s campaign said it was sending the $2,000 fee to start the recount.
At the end of the day it will be good to see a recount because it will help settle the matter but all evidence points to the fact that Clinton won fair and square. There is a paper trail in New Hampshire unlike other states and what has happened in the past. I mention this line of thought only because one of the candidates themselves has no brought it up, but there seems to be little evidence to point to any real big news.
Gary Langer director of polling at ABC has some interesting thoughts and questions about the polling fiasco in New Hampshire:
But we need to know it through careful, empirically based analysis. There will be a lot of claims about what happened - about respondents who reputedly lied, about alleged difficulties polling in biracial contests. That may be so. It also may be a smokescreen - a convenient foil for pollsters who’d rather fault their respondents than own up to other possibilities - such as their own failings in sampling and likely voter modeling.
5. Going into the New Hampshire primary, we certainly did see Clinton holding on to a significant lead among women and older voters. But we were focusing on Obama’s massive lead among younger and independent voters. We seem to have missed the huge turnout of older women that apparently put Clinton over the top.
Zogby notes that Clinton’s numbers did go up in his polling for the last 24 hours after her debate performance but they were trending polls and averaged in the massive leads they saw after Obama’s win in Iowa.
From CIRCLE, the youth vote increased in the New Hampshire primary to 43% of eligible voters 30 and under, up from 18% in 2004 and 28% in 2000 based on exit polls conducted in the state. That numbers equates to 84,232 young people or 16% of the overall vote.
Specifically young people represented 18% of the total Democratic vote and 14% of the overall Republican vote.
For Democrats young people between the ages of 18-24 went 60% for Senator Obama compared to 22% for Senator Clinton and 9% for former Senator Edwards. Meanwhile young people between the ages of 24-30 spread 37% for Clinton, 35% for Obama and 18% for Edwards.
For the Republicans young people between the ages of 18-24 went 27% for John McCain and then spread 19% for Ron Paul, 17% for Mitt Romney and 15% for Mike Huckabee. Meanwhile young people between the ages of 24-30 went 37% for John McCain, 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul and 15% for Mike Huckabee.
“In the modern primary era, this is the first four-way split in Iowa and New Hampshire in the Republican and Democratic races. In other words, there is no precedent for what’s taken place in this election — not in the generation since Iowa and New Hampshire have mattered together. Since 1976, when there have been winners in all four states, there has never been four different candidates who have won these two states.”
It is almost impossible to convey just how wrong everyone, including me, got it wrong in New Hampshire. Just dead wrong! Goes to show what any of us know.
When it comes to Senator Clinton I have to say this. I have never seen anyone take such a massive beating in the press, on the blogs, by her opponents, by the people themselves showing up to boo and protest, than she took after Iowa. When people asked me what the signifigance was going to be from Iowa I did not say it was delegates, I did not say it was a sense of the electorate, I did not say it was anything substantial when it comes to voting. I said it would be the media that would go on to crown the winner the victor and pummel the opposition. Boy was that an understatement.
EXIT POLLS: GOP: 3 in 10 GOP voters are independents (CORRECTED FIGURE)…many late deciders… McCain more electable than Romney…33% say economy is biggest issue followed by Iraq (22%) …. Democrats: 46% made up minds without last week.. 4 in 10 are independents…. HRC’s favorability: 73%; Obama’s: 84%; … 36% say economy is top issue….
ABC News has a statement from Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlanis who said turnout is “absolutely huge” and reporting that they could run out of Democratic ballots in Portsmouth, Keene, Hudson and Pelham.
“Turnout is absolutely huge and towns are starting to get concerned that they may not have enough ballots,” Scanlan said. “We are working on those issues. Everything else seems to be going smoothly.”
Because the ballots are running out from the Democrats it suggests independents are breaking toward that party.
Voting began at midnight last night in the New Hampshire primary in the tiny towns of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location where Senator’s Barack Obama won out for the Democrats and John McCain won out Republicans.
In Hart’s Location it was, Barack Obama 9 votes, Hillary Rodham Clinton 3 votes and John Edwards 1 vote. On the Republican side McCain had 6 votes, Mike Huckabee 5 votes, Ron Paul 4 votes and Mitt Romney 1 vote.
In Dixville Notch it was Obama 7 votes, Edwards 2 votes Bill Richardson 1 vote. On the Republican side, McCain 4 votes, Romney 2 votes, Giuliani 1 vote.
Neither town is known for reliability when it comes to picking a nominee.
Obama 33%, Clinton - 28%, Edwards - 18%
Obama wins out Independents 2-1 over Clinton
With Democrats they are about even
McCain - 32%, Romney - 31%, Huckabee - 11%, Giuliani - 10%, Paul - 8%, Thompson - 3%
Independents will make up an estimated 27% of the Republican primary vote which is down from 32%. Independents are more likely to vote for Barack Obama than John McCain.
