Early Exit Poll Data for New Hampshire (Open Thread)


January 8th, 2008

From Marc Ambinder

EXIT POLLS: GOP: 3 in 10 GOP voters are independents (CORRECTED FIGURE)…many late deciders… McCain more electable than Romney…33% say economy is biggest issue followed by Iraq (22%) …. Democrats: 46% made up minds without last week.. 4 in 10 are independents…. HRC’s favorability: 73%; Obama’s: 84%; … 36% say economy is top issue….

From CNN Exit Polls

Last Minute Decisions
Eighteen percent of Republicans and 15 percent of Democrats said they settled on a candidate on Election Day.

New Hampshire Democratic primary voters:

1. The economy
2. The war in Iraq
3. Health care

New Hampshire Republican primary voters:

1. The economy
2. The war in Iraq
3. Terrorism
4. Illegal immigration

New Hampshire Republican primary voters

Enthusiastic – 10 percent

Satisfied, but not enthusiastic – 40 percent

Dissatisfied, but not angry – 33 percent

Angry – 16 percent

New Hampshire Republican primary voters

Generally continue George W. Bush’s policies – 18 percent

Change to more conservative policies – 51 percent

Change to less conservative policies – 24 percent

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Clinton Goes Off on Obama: Big Fairy Tale


January 8th, 2008

From ABC News Bill Clinton unloads on Barack Obama’s perceived free-ride from the press. Calls Obama’s candidacy and the press coverage “Big Fairy Tale”.

From MSNBC

“It is wrong that Senator Obama got to go through 15 debates trumpeting his superior judgment and how he had been against the war in every year, enumerating the years, and never got asked one time–not once, ‘Well, how could you say that when you said in 2004 you didn’t know how you would have voted on the resolution? You said in 2004 there was no difference between you and George Bush on the war. And you took that speech you’re now running on off your Web site in 2004. And there’s no difference in your voting record and Hillary’s ever since.’”

Bill was then asked about Mark Penn’s “where’s the bounce” memo and 42 went off. “The bounce always occurs on the second day not the first day,” Mr. Clinton said, conceding the mistake before turning the table on the questioner and the Obama camp. “What did you think about the Obama thing calling Hillary the senator from Punjab? Did you like that? Or what about the Obama handout that was covered up, the press never reported on, implying that I was a crook. Scouring me-scathing criticism over my financial reports. Ken Starr spent $70 million to find out that I wouldn’t take a nickel to see the cow jump over the moon.”

“So you can take a shot at Mark Penn if you want. It wasn’t his best day. He was hurt. He felt badly we didn’t do better in Iowa,” Mr. Clinton explained during the forum. “But the idea that one of these campaigns is positive and the other is negative when I know the reverse is true and I have seen it and I have been blistered by it for months is a little tough to take just because of the sanitizing coverage that’s in the media doesn’t mean the facts aren’t out there.”

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Newsweek Profiles Obama’s 26-Year-Old Speechwriter


January 7th, 2008

A really interesting profile in Newsweek of Barack Obama’s 26-year-old speechwriter:

Jon Favreau has the worst and the best job in political speechwriting. His boss is a best-selling author who doesn’t really need his help, having written the 2004 speech that catapulted him onto the national stage. At the same time, the same boss also happens to be capable of delivering a speech in ways that can give his audience the goosebumps.

But Barack Obama is more than a little busy campaigning across Iowa and New Hampshire right now. So it was Favreau who led the team that wrote Obama’s victory speech in Des Moines last week—a moment that prompted the TV pundits to drop months of skepticism about Obama’s candidacy to make breathless comparisons with the Kennedy era.

For Favreau, a 26-year-old jean-clad staffer (who is no relation to the comedian of “Swingers” fame) who worked in Obama’s senate office, the contrast with the 2004 election could not be starker.

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Bloomberg Meets With Moderates


January 7th, 2008

NYC Mayor Bloomberg and twelve current and former officials are meeting today to discuss ways to end partisan polarization amid much speculation that Bloomberg is eyeing a potential White House bid.

You can read more reports from Associated Press, Reuters and Financial Times.

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New Hampshire Poll Roundup


January 7th, 2008

USA Today/Gallup
Dems: Obama 41, Clinton 28, Edwards 19.

GOP: McCain 34, Romney 30, Huckabee 13, Paul 8, Giuliani 8.

CBS - Obama - 35%, Clinton - 28%, Edwards - 28%
With Independents Obama leads Clinton, 41% - 24%
With Democrats Clinton leads Obama 33% - 30%

Rasmussen

Obama 33%, Clinton - 28%, Edwards - 18%
Obama wins out Independents 2-1 over Clinton
With Democrats they are about even

McCain - 32%, Romney - 31%, Huckabee - 11%, Giuliani - 10%, Paul - 8%, Thompson - 3%
Independents will make up an estimated 27% of the Republican primary vote which is down from 32%. Independents are more likely to vote for Barack Obama than John McCain.

Marist
Dems: Obama 36, Clinton 28, Edwards 22. Error margin: 4 points.

GOP: McCain 35, Romney 31, Huckabee 13. Error margin: 4.5 points.

Nationally
Rassmussen

Clinton - 33%, Obama - 29%, Edwards - 20%

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