Today Congress will once again attempt to revive an immigration bill. The immediate outcome of any bill that provides for anything even resembling “amnesty” will be most felt on all the Republican candidates. The wisdom of the campaigns, aside from McCain’s and to a degree Giuliani’s, is this. Since the president and many Republicans in Congress are moving to the left, move as far as is humanly possible to the right.

There is a problem though. Not only does a candidate need to convince the electorate that they make the ‘proper’ based on ideology, they need to convince them that they will have the ‘means’ to actually carry out those decisions. In 2000 & 2004 President Bush and those Republicans running for Congress promised a lot to the conservative right. In 2006 they saw the outcome of not delivering.

At this moment I have heard every Republican presidential candidate declare what they will do. I haven’t heard HOW they will do it.

It isn’t just the conservative blogs and talk radio as Sen. Lott and others suggest, it is a large block, perhaps a majority of conservatives who feel let down and disenchanted with both the administration and the Republicans in Congress.

If the numbers continue shaping up as they are, any Republican who runs will certainly have to face at least one house of Congress that is Democratic. Most likely they will face two houses both of which will have stronger majorities then they do today. They will also have a large percentage of Governors as Democrats and in those states like California where there are Republicans, they will be moderate.

Now let me ask you this. If you are a Republican voter watching the president you elected twice and the Senator or Congressperson you elected vote the opposite way on immigration, what is your incentive to vote Republican again this year? You had over six years of a Republican controlled House, Senate, executive branch & judicial system and those issues social conservatives feel strongly about including abortion & gay marriage are exactly the same now as they were seven years ago. Meanwhile if you are a fiscal conservative you’ve seen the party outspend, out-bureaucracy and outsource by leaps and bounds over even the most vilified Democrat in years, Bill Clinton, who seemed rather moderate in comparison (with the help of a Republican Congress).

Add to that the mismanagement of the Iraq war and you have an explosive mixture.

Now you face a new Republican candidate. One who is making all the same promises that the last candidate for president did. They promise to cut spending, close the border, end waste, stop gay marriage (in most cases), end abortion (except Giuliani and those in favor of states making the decision) and basically do everything you ever wanted and more. The problem is, you know as well as they do that they have NO WAY of delivering.

Most voters probably expect a good deal of campaign promises to go by the wayside the moment after inauguration day. They don’t expect ALL of them too and when you are faced with the option of showing up to vote for someone who you suspect can do almost nothing they promised or just staying home, which one do you pick? Perhaps you might even go a third route and vote independent? It could happen but I suspect as they did in 2006, many will stay home.

I also suspect the Republicans believe that once the nomination process is over they can simply attack whomever the Democrat is with as much force as they did in 2000 & 2004 and not worry about issues. I don’t know though, this is going to be a much different election. Democrats seemed charged and after eight years of President Bush that term “liberal” might not be as scary as it has been.

I also suspect that Hillary Clinton and the people surrounding Barack Obama know how to play both offense and defense.

So in short, watch the immigration bill it might well be a sign of things to come.