I’ve said it before and I will say it again, if you want to preview what the general election arguments will be on the Republican side simply look at the 2004 election. Take your pick: Defense, Gay Marriage, Democrats = High Taxes.

Case in point? Mitt Romney is now running a radio ad talking about gay marriage. His target though is slightly different, he is going after his fellow Republican candidates saying “Not all Republican candidates agree, but defending marriage is the right thing to do.”

There are two obvious points to make. Point 1) is Romney’s own flip-flopping on social issues. Point 2) is the problem in convincing a conservative audience Romney or any of the candidates could or would actually do anything on gay marriage.

There is a simple way of looking at things. George Bush had the House, Senate, Presidency & Supreme Court nominations. He made gay marriage a major issue and won the support of christian conservatives. So here we are in 2008 and… no constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.

Let’s say Romney becomes president. It is looking pretty good thus far he will face a Democratic House & Senate and if a Supreme court nomination pops up it will have to be confirmed by said Congress. See the problem here?

Now at the end of the day I don’t doubt it is still a potent issue for that block of voters. I just don’t know that in 2008 it will be an issue that is used to select the nominee.